A Study on the Spatiotemporal Patterns of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Chang–Zhu–Tan Urban Agglomeration and Its Compatibility with Economic Development

Water resources are fundamental to human survival, as well as critical to the sustainable progress of the economy and society. This study selects representative indicators and employs the TOPSIS model to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) in the Chang–Zhu–Tan region (2006–2022). Based on this, kernel density estimation and Moran’s I are applied to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution and evolution trends of WRCC. Additionally, the Lorenz curve, Gini coefficient, and imbalance index are utilized to examine the alignment between WRCC and socio-economic growth. Finally, a system dynamics model is used to simulate WRCC and matching dynamics under different scenarios. The findings reveal the following: (1) The overall WRCC is favorable but exhibits a declining temporal trend, with widening inter-district disparities and strong spatial agglomeration. (2) The match between WRCC and economic development is unbalanced, though alignment has gradually improved over time. (3) The WRCC varies across different scenarios. In current development scenario, WRCC declines significantly. In economic priority development and industrial restructuring scenarios, this reduction is slowed. Specifically, in water resource policy control scenario, WRCC can be enhanced. Aside from the industrial restructuring scenario, all other scenarios contribute to improving the coordination between WRCC and economic development.