Analysis of Sand Dune Migration and Future Trends on the Western Edge of the Kumtag Desert

Sand dune migration, as a typical dynamic process of aeolian geomorphology in arid regions, directly influences regional ecological security and infrastructure development. Focusing on the western edge of the Kumtag Desert, this study uses remote sensing imagery and field investigations, combined with multi-factor meteorological observations and CMIP6 climate scenarios, to quantitatively analyze the migration characteristics and influencing factors of representative dunes, and to construct a predictive model for future migration trends. The dominant migration direction is W–WNW–NW, which closely matches the composite resultant drift potential. The average annual migration speed is 12.86 m·a−1, classifying these dunes as fast-moving; small to medium dunes migrate faster (13.84 m·a−1) than large dunes (11.27 m·a−1). Wind speed, sand-moving wind frequency, drift potential (DP), Vegetation Fractional Cover (FVC), and precipitation significantly affect migration speeds; wind speed is the primary driver (single-factor R2 = 0.41), while precipitation (R2 = 0.26) and FVC (R2 = 0.27) exert a suppressing effect, particularly on small to medium dunes. Based on stepwise multiple regression analysis combined with CMIP6 multi-model predictions, under the SSP8.5 scenario, characterized by significant temperature increases, drastic fluctuations in precipitation patterns, and notable increases in wind speed, the average annual sand dune migration speed is projected to reach 18.59 m·a−1 by the end of this century, an increase of 5.78 m·a−1 compared to the current speeds; whereas under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, changes are projected to be minor and overall relatively stable. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for regional infrastructure and engineering planning, as well as for the renovation and protection of existing oil and power transmission lines.