Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Drivers of Ecosystem Service Value in Coastal China, 1980–2020

In response to the widespread decline in ecosystem service value (ESV) caused by rapid industrialization and urbanization-driven land-use transitions in Coastal China—characterized by shrinking farmland and expanding built-up land and crystallized in the “core-city sprawl and surrounding-farmland encroachment” pattern—this study integrated land-use and socioeconomic data from 1980 to 2020. Employing the equivalent-factor method and Geodetector model, we quantified the spatiotemporal evolution of ESV and its driving mechanisms across the entire coastal region. The results show that (i) the total ESV experienced a fluctuating increase. (ii) Spatially, the ESV exhibited a “high in the south, low in the north, and higher inland than along the immediate coast” pattern, with mountain–hill belts and estuarine wetlands in the south forming high-value clusters, whereas the Bohai Rim in the north emerged as a low-value zone. (iii) Socioeconomic factors increasingly dominated the driving forces, while NDVI became the most influential natural factor; the interactions between the drivers consistently produced bi-factor enhancement effects. These findings provide a scientific basis for implementing the “Two-Mountains Theory” and optimizing coastal territorial spatial planning.