From thinking to ticking: has theory of change lost its theoretical grounding?

Theory of Change (ToC) has gained traction in higher education, particularly in England under renewed emphasis on evaluation from the regulator. In principle, ToC offers a way to think through how and why interventions work. In practice, ToC can become something to fill in, rather than to work with, as assumptions often go unexamined and change mechanisms remain vague. This article argues that ToC has drifted from its original purpose, with a call to reclaim its value as a generative and reflective thinking tool. A ToC template is useful if used as a guide to stimulate discussion, but less so if treated and completed as an exercise in its own right. The ToC must support enquiry, not only accountability, which means an acceptance that change mechanisms are rarely linear, predictable or neat, and that it is always a live and evolving document, in print and in practice.