Trends and seasonality of 2019–2023 global methane emissions inferred from a localized ensemble transform Kalman filter (CHEEREIO v1.3.1) applied to TROPOMI satellite observations

Abstract. We use 2019–2023 TROPOMI satellite observations of atmospheric methane to quantify global methane emissions at monthly 2° × 2.5° resolution with a localized ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) inversion, deriving monthly posterior estimates of emissions and year-to-year evolution. We apply two alternative wetland inventories (WetCHARTs and LPJ-wsl) as prior estimates. Our best posterior estimate of global emissions shows a surge from 560 Tg a−1 in 2019 to 587–592 Tg a−1 in 2020–2021 before declining to 572–570 Tg a−1 in 2022–2023. Posterior emissions reproduce the observed 2019–2023 trends in methane concentrations at NOAA surface sites and from TROPOMI with minimal regional bias. Consistent with previous studies, we attribute the 2020–2021 methane surge to a 14 Tg a−1 increase in emissions from sub-Saharan Africa but find that previous attribution of this surge to anthropogenic sources (livestock) reflects errors in the assumed wetland spatial distribution. Correlation with GRACE-FO inundation data suggests that wetlands in South Sudan played a major role in the 2020–2021 surge but are poorly represented in wetland models. By contrast, boreal wetland emissions decreased over 2020–2023 consistent with drying measured by GRACE-FO. We find that the global seasonality of methane emissions is driven by northern tropical wetlands and peaks in September, later than the July wetland model peak and consistent with GRACE-FO. We find no global seasonality in oil/gas emissions, but US fields show elevated cold season emissions that could reflect increased leakage.