Forecasting sustainability implications of material innovations: Lessons from an illustrative case study on photochromic textiles

Abstract This study conducts one of the first future‐oriented assessments that privileges prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) and scenario‐based social LCA to estimate the impacts of innovations, particularly those aimed at improving user experience and product appeal. The assessment examines various levels of environmental and social challenges while considering multiple technology implementation pathways, offering a comprehensive understanding of the implications of emerging technologies. The findings support the development of actionable strategies to manage these impacts effectively and provide stakeholders with critical information. By doing so, decision‐makers are better equipped to determine whether the added value of an innovation justifies its additional impacts. Since the added value of such innovations is usually excluded when defining the functional unit in LCA, we advocate for decision‐making processes aligned with sustainability goals—whether at the corporate, national, or international level. To demonstrate this approach, photochromic fabrics are used as a case study. While these fabrics are estimated to cause +10% to+20% climate change impacts compared to conventional ones, these impacts can be reduced through strategies such as extending product lifespan, using recycled materials in production (−10%), and reducing the amount of photochromic dye required for functionality (−12%). Ultimately, the decision to commercialize such innovations should depend on their alignment with sustainability targets.