The need for multi‐method extreme event attribution

Abstract Over the past 20 years, extreme event attribution has developed rapidly, providing a wide range of methods to attribute weather events – from unconditioned probabilistic to strongly conditioned storyline approaches. Advancing the field now requires combining results from multiple methods, allowing more robust conclusions drawn from various lines of evidence. Yet, doing so remains challenging. We call for closer interaction within the attribution field to develop approaches with method comparison in mind. We highlight the need to explicitly define the research questions answerable by specific methods, and to clearly outline the limitations of each method.

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Publication Details

Journal
Weather
Published
2025-11-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.7779
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
2.60
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article

The need for multi‐method extreme event attribution

Vikki Thompson, Shirin Ermis, Marylou Athanase
2 citations
Weather
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
2.60
article

The need for multi‐method extreme event attribution

Vikki Thompson, Shirin Ermis, Marylou Athanase
article en
2 citations

Abstract

Abstract Over the past 20 years, extreme event attribution has developed rapidly, providing a wide range of methods to attribute weather events – from unconditioned probabilistic to strongly conditioned storyline approaches. Advancing the field now requires combining results from multiple methods, allowing more robust conclusions drawn from various lines of evidence. Yet, doing so remains challenging. We call for closer interaction within the attribution field to develop approaches with method comparison in mind. We highlight the need to explicitly define the research questions answerable by specific methods, and to clearly outline the limitations of each method.

WeatherVol. 81(2)
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (DE), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (NL), NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (US), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
Openalex Percentile: Top 9%
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
2.60
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The need for multi‐method extreme event attribution — Vikki Thompson, Shirin Ermis, et al. · Weather (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS