Pest dynamics in relation to climate and varietal resistance: implications for sustainable management in Kagera sugar plantation, Tanzania

This study examined the relationship between climate variability and insect pest dynamics in sugarcane cultivation at Kagera Sugar Company, Tanzania, from 2014 to 2023. Focus was placed on three major pests: Eldana (Eldana saccharina), White Scale (Pseudaulacaspis pentagona (Targioni)), and yellow sugarcane aphid (Sipha flava (Forbes)). Pest data were collected through visual inspections and counts across different sugarcane varieties and seasons, alongside climate data from a local meteorological station. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to explore patterns in pest infestation. Statistical analyses, including One-Way ANOVA and the Kruskal–Wallis test, assessed differences in infestation levels among varieties and months. Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) values quantified the consistency of infestation patterns. The PCA revealed clear differences in pest resistance among sugarcane varieties. The variety CO617 showed lower susceptibility to yellow sugarcane aphid and white scale, while R879 was more prone to yellow sugarcane aphid infestations, and N12 recorded higher stalk damage from Eldana. The first principal component explained most of the variation observed in pest pressure across varieties. One-Way ANOVA and Kruskal–Wallis tests indicated significant differences in infestation levels by variety and month, confirming the influence of both varietal and seasonal factors. Overall, variety CO617 may be better suited for reducing pest pressure under current climate patterns, while varieties such as R879 and N12 may require targeted management strategies. These findings highlight the importance of integrating climate variability and varietal selection into pest management to enhance sustainability in sugarcane production.