“To Walk With Only a Few Friends”: Understanding the Myanmar Military Junta's Negative Neutralism

ABSTRACT Following Myanmar's 2021 military coup, the State Administrative Council (SAC) junta reversed a decade of modest political and economic reforms and oversaw a dramatic shift in foreign policy, reverting to a reactive and inward‐looking diplomatic stance which this study describes as “negative neutralism.” In doing so, the junta has withdrawn from international organizations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and United Nations and returned to dependence on its traditional great power patron China to guarantee continued investment and access to defense exports. The junta's pivot to China is puzzling, given the military's long‐held suspicion toward Chinese support for ethnic armed groups fighting against Myanmar's armed forces in the north. This study puts forward a Neoclassical Realist framework to analyze the external and domestic drivers of the junta's foreign policy. It argues that the junta has reluctantly resumed asymmetric dependency with Beijing due to political pragmatism and economic necessity. The primary goal of this strategy, which explains both the SAC's discomfort and pragmatism, is regime survival. The study also demonstrates how the SAC has simultaneously hedged against overreliance on China by deepening partnerships with Russia, India, and Thailand.