How to estimate the success chance of a scientific theory? On the no miracles argument and the base rate fallacy

Abstract Colin Howson (2000) claims that the no miracles argument in favor of a realist interpretation of a scientific theory falls prey to the base rate fallacy and is therefore invalid on logical grounds. In response, Dawid and Hartmann (2018) claim that Howson only reconstructs a limited part of the argument. They argue that a more complete reconstruction of the no miracles argument takes into account the success frequency of a wider spectrum of scientific theory building, and therefore avoids the base rate fallacy. In a critical response to Dawid and Hartmann, Boge (2020) presents two challenges to their approach, both of which are designed to provide reasons for skepticism about treating observed success frequencies in science as connected to the relevant base rates. In this paper, I argue that Boge’s challenges are not effective.