Victoria January to June 2025

There were significant changes in Victorian politics in the first half of 2025. The Liberal Party had a new leader, and two by-elections were held in February. The federal election in May resulted in a generally poor outcome for the Liberal Party, even though it was able to win one seat off an independent. There were also changes to the leadership of Victoria Police, while an inquiry to alter the electoral system of the state's Legislative Council continued. The end of 2024 was a tumultuous period for the Liberal Party. Having been in opposition since 2014, the party was still grappling with its personnel and policy settings. The party's former leader, John Pesutto, was popular according to opinion polls, which made the Liberal Party appear more competitive than it had been in recent years. Pesutto, however, had been replaced by Brad Battin just after Christmas in 2024. As leader, Battin had promised to focus on core state issues including law and order and service delivery. The initial indications were that the Liberal Party's decision to replace Pesutto had paid dividends. According to the Resolve Political Monitor survey published in The Age on 24 January, the Coalition's primary vote had risen from 38% in November to 42%. At the same time, Labor's primary vote had fallen to just 22%. These were significant results and suggested that there was a shift occurring in the Victorian electorate. For example, the same poll in June 2023 had the Coalition at just 26%, while Labor, then still led by Daniel Andrews, was on 41%. Labor's primary vote with Jacinta Allan as leader, at least according to this poll, could not reach the highs of support enjoyed by Andrews. Further data from the poll published on 24 January showed the significant challenges confronting the Labor party in its quest to win a fourth election in a row, which was due in November 2026. In terms of the preferred premier measure, for example, 36% of Victorians supported Brad Battin, while just 26% supported Jacinta Allan. This ostensibly provided the Liberal Party with some confidence as it prepared to contest the two by-elections, which were due to the retirement of sitting MPs. The results of these by-elections are explored below. There were two by-elections for seats in the Legislative Assembly held on 8 February. The first was for Prahran, which had previously been held by Sam Hibbins from the Australian Greens. Hibbins had first won the seat in 2014 off the Liberal Party and had held it in the 2018 and 2022 elections. The by-election was caused by Hibbins resigning after reportedly admitting to having an affair with a staffer (ABC, 29 January 2025). Prahran, an inner-metropolitan seat, was held by the Greens by a margin of 12% according to the ABC's election analyst Antony Green (see ABC, 29 January 2025). Despite the sizeable margin, the by-election promised to be a close result as the Labor Party, Liberal Party, and Greens had all held the seat over the last two decades. Eleven candidates contested the by-election, including representatives from the Family First Party and Animal Justice Party. The Greens preselected Angelica Di Camillo, while the Liberal Party preselected Rachel Westaway. The Labor Party decided not to field a candidate, reportedly because the administrative leaders of the party felt it could not win the seat (The Age, 28 November 2024). As a result, Tony Lupton, who had held the seat as the Labor MP from 2002 to 2010, decided to stand as an independent after quitting the Labor Party over its decision not to endorse a candidate (The Age, 2 February 2025). Lupton's candidacy added an extra layer of intrigue to the contest. While hoping to win the seat, Lupton was also seeking to stop the Greens from holding onto Prahran by describing the election as “a referendum on the Greens” (The Age, 2 February 2025). Lupton's campaign also highlighted a division emerging in the Labor Party over its decision not to preselect a formal candidate for the contest (The Age, 2 February 2025). The by-election indicated a strong result for the Liberal Party. Its primary vote rose by 4.8%, while the Greens vote fell by 0.6%. Both parties ended up with 36.2% of the primary vote (ABC, 18 February 2025). The Liberal Party's candidate, Rachel Westaway, benefited from attracting the preferences of other candidates, including Lupton's, which meant that she was able to win the seat with a two-party preferred vote of 51.6%. The Werribee by-election was a different affair. This was a seat that had traditionally been held by Labor with a very strong margin. The by-election was caused by Tim Pallas, who was the state's treasurer, retiring at the end of 2024. An outer-metropolitan seat to the west of Melbourne, Werribee was held by Labor by a margin of 10.9%. Twelve candidates contested the by-election, including those from the Labor, Liberal, and Greens parties. The result was very close. Labor's primary vote fell by 16.5% to 28.9%, while the Liberal primary vote went up by 3.7% to 29%. As a result of the margin, it took several days to finalise the result. In the end, Labor managed to hold onto the seat with a two-party preferred vote of just 50.8% (see ABC, 18 February 2025). The result was seen as a form of protest by voters living in safe Labor seats, especially those to the west of Melbourne. As an acknowledgement of the challenges in maintaining the support of such voters, Jacinta Allan vowed to look after the interests of these communities. As she put it, “We know by-elections are an opportunity for voters to make sure their voice is being heard and it's being well and truly heard” (cited in ABC, 13 February 2025). The net result of the by-elections was that the Liberal Party had an additional MP, while it appeared that Labor was having difficulty in maintaining the support of voters in seats that have traditionally been safe. The by-election results also led to speculation about how Labor might perform at the national election, which would be held in May. With the Allan Government's popularity seemingly falling, attention turned to marginal seats in the state in the lead up to the election, which will be discussed below. There were at least 12 seats held by the major parties with a margin of 6% or less, while an additional two seats were held by the independents in Kooyong and Goldstein by margins of less than 4%. There were also significant questions about how Victorians would vote as it appeared state Labor was losing support as demonstrated through opinion polls and the close result in the Werribee by-election. Following the poor performance of the Liberal Party at the 2022 election, Peter Dutton as leader focused on attracting voters in outer-metropolitan electorates. A proposal to reduce the fuel excise was ostensibly part of the strategy to gain the support of voters living outside of the capital city. The party's proposal to have nuclear power, argued to reduce the cost of energy (The Guardian, 13 December 2024), was also seemingly designed to capture the support of these communities. The party's nuclear policy, however, seemed to place pressure on the state Liberal Party leader as Brad Battin appeared to stop short of providing support for the plans. In a press conference, Battin said that he was “open to an adult conversation” (cited in News.com.au, 13 January 2025). Labor in Victoria also found the campaign somewhat challenging. With Jacinta Allan's support seemingly on the decline, the federal campaign in Victoria appeared to focus on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. This contrasted with the approach taken in other states such as South Australia and Western Australia, where the prime minister was joined by state premiers on the campaign trail. The first joint election campaign appearance with Allan and Albanese occurred on 7 April. Questions about the premier's popularity and its impact on Labor's chances of winning seats in the state were prominent during the press conference (see The Age, 7 April 2025). The most marginal seat for the Liberal Party in Victoria was Deakin (held by just 0.02%), followed by Casey (1.4%), Monash (2.9%), and Wannon (3.8%). The seat of Menzies was also marginal as it had notionally been a Labor seat after the redistribution. For Labor, Chisholm (3.3%) was its most marginal seat, followed by Aston (3.6%), and McEwen (3.8%). These margins indicated that Victorian seats could change hands and potentially impact which party could form government. The results on election night, however, quickly demonstrated that the Liberal Party's support in Victoria had deteriorated since 2022, while Labor was enjoying a boost in support. The Coalition's primary vote fell by 0.9% to 32.2%, while Labor's vote went up by 1.1% to 34%. On a two-party measure, Labor enjoyed a swing of 1.5% to lead the Coalition on 56.3% to 43.7% (ABC, 8 June 2025). As these results indicate, the Liberal Party lost ground in Victoria. It could not regain Aston, which had been won by Labor at a by-election, and lost Deakin and Menzies to the Labor Party. This left the party with reduced representation in eastern Melbourne, an area in which it had traditionally performed well. The only positive outcome for the Liberal Party in Victoria was that it was able to win the seat of Goldstein, an inner-metropolitan electorate that had been a traditional Liberal seat prior to the 2022 election. The seat was won by Zoe Daniel, who was seen to be part of the so-called “teal” candidates in the 2022 election who held the seat with a margin of just 3.3%. In 2025, Tim Wilson, who had held Goldstein from 2016 to 2022, recontested the seat. This contest between two high-profile candidates drew significant attention before and during the campaign. Tim Wilson's primary vote went up to 43.4%, while Daniel's vote fell by 0.6% to 30.7% (ABC, 8 June 2025). The result following election night was too close to call and, after a lengthy process of counting all the votes, Wilson was declared the winner with a margin of just 175 votes (ABC, 31 May 2025). Across the state, the support for other parties contesting Victorian House of Representatives seats was mixed. The Greens vote went down by 0.2% (to 13.6%), while One Nation's primary vote went up by 2% (to 5.8%). The Trumpet of Patriots received just 50,471 primary votes, representing 1.2% support (ABC, 8 June 2025). The 2025 election was also challenging for the Australian Greens in Victoria. The party's leader, Adam Bandt, had held the seat of Melbourne since 2010. The party's primary vote had lifted to 49.6% at the 2022 election which, following the flow of preferences, meant that Bandt held the seat with a margin of 6.5%. The party's primary vote, however, fell by 5.3%, while Labor's rose by 5.7%. After the distribution of preferences, Labor's candidate, Sarah Witty, was able to win the seat with a two-party preferred margin of 53% to the Greens on 47%. This was one of the shocks of the election, as the Greens had performed strongly in previous elections. The result of the federal election indicates that the Liberal Party has much ground to make up in Victoria. Labor won 27 of the 38 seats across the state, leaving the Coalition with just nine seats, while two independents remained (representing Kooyong and Indi). The Greens were left without Lower House representation in Victoria. In the Senate contest, the Coalition was able to win just two seats in 2025, while Labor won three, and the Greens were able to hold onto one seat. Law and order had been prominent in the political debate in Victoria, with data released at the end of 2024 reporting that crime had reached record levels in the state (The Age, 19 December 2024). The rise in the crime rate was led by the theft of vehicles, petrol, and food (The Age, 19 December 2024). Crime committed by young people also increased, while domestic violence was also at record levels (The Age, 19 December 2024). While the state crime rates were increasing, an ongoing dispute between the Police Association of Victoria and Victoria Police continued. The Association sought to revise conditions while increasing a rise in pay by 24% over 4 years (The Age, 18 November 2024). The government's original offer of 4% had been rejected by Police Association members. Within this context, a ballot of Police Association of Victoria members was held in February. This resulted in 87% of members indicating that “they were not confident in [Chief] Commissioner [Shane] Patton's leadership and ability to manage the force in the future” (ABC, 15 February 2025). Patton had started in the role in 2020 and had been at the helm during the COVID-19 pandemic. He had a 5-year contract which would expire in the middle of 2025, but there was speculation he would be reappointed for a new term (ABC, 15 February 2025). On 16 February, however, Commissioner Patton announced that he had resigned from the role. As Patton put it, “…given the current circumstances surrounding my position, I have decided to step away from the role effective immediately” (cited in The Age, 17 February 2025). Rick Nugent, the state's Emergency Management Commissioner, was selected to be Acting Commissioner. After Patton's resignation, a new offer of an annual 5% increase in pay over 4 years was agreed to by the Police Association members (ABC, 28 February 2025). Following the search for a new commissioner, Mike Bush was appointed to the role on 27 June. Bush had previously been the commissioner of the police in New Zealand between 2014 and 2020 and sought to address youth crime and enhance community safety (ABC, 27 June 2025). While there were changes occurring at the management level of Victoria Police, the government passed legislation which it believed would reduce the incidents of violent crimes, especially those involving machetes. In March, the government introduced laws that would ban retailers from selling machetes. Machetes would become a prohibited weapon on 1 September. As a result, there would also be an amnesty from September 1 to November 30 so that Victorians could dispose of their machetes across police stations (see ABC, 28 May 2025). Following the federal election, the internal operation of the Liberal Party in Victoria became a topic of much discussion once more. This time, the focus was on what was occurring with former Liberal leader John Pesutto, who had been successfully sued for defamation by Moira Deeming in 2024 and was required to pay $2.3 million to cover her costs (ABC, 8 June 2025). As Pesutto could not pay the amount by the deadline, he faced potential bankruptcy, which could have been highly problematic for the Liberal Party, as it would mean he could be disqualified from being an MP. If this was to occur, a by-election would have to be held in the seat of Hawthorn, which Pesutto held with a margin of less than 2%. According to reports, there were proposals for the Liberal Party to provide a loan which caused internal division as some within the party argued a loan should not be provided to Pesutto (see ABC, 8 June 2025). The Liberal Party finally agreed to provide a loan to Pesutto which meant he could avoid bankruptcy (The Guardian, 19 June 2025). Some opponents of the arrangements, however, reportedly challenged the loan in court, which meant the matter could potentially continue to be a live issue until at least the second half of the year (see Australian Financial Review, 26 June 2025 and Herald Sun, 9 July 2025). This meant the matter could still become a distraction for the Liberal Party in the lead up to the 2026 state election. Following a call for a public inquiry into possible electoral reform of the Legislative Council in 2024, the Electoral Matters Committee published initial feedback it had received in April 2025. The author of this chronicle entry also made a submission in a private capacity to this inquiry. At present, the state's Upper House is comprised of eight districts returning five representatives each. The electoral system used is similar to that of the Senate before changes that were made in 2016. In particular, Victorians may vote in the Upper House by indicating their first preference only above the line or vote below the line. The initial feedback indicated that most responders preferred a system where 40 members were elected across the entire state (Electoral Matters Committee, April 2025). The work of the committee would continue into the second half of the year as it would finalise its report by December 2025. After over 30 years in the role, the ABC's election analyst, Antony Green, announced that he would be retiring from being the on-air analyst for elections after the 2025 federal election. Students and researchers of politics, as well as the broader community, would be thankful for all his expertise and contributions to political science and coverage of state and national elections during this time. Research data are not shared.