Traffic simulation for natural disaster preparedness: case study of Dadar, Mumbai

Purpose With rapid urbanisation and increased rainfall leading to frequent flooding, this research aims to focus on analysing road network performance during disruptions and to assess the effectiveness of various evacuation strategies. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a microscopic traffic simulation model to analyse a road network comprising 5,159 links, 2,147 nodes and 18 zones. The model is first calibrated using crowdsourced travel time and travel patterns to reflect real-world conditions accurately. Two disruption scenarios are examined: reduced road speeds due to inundation (scenario-1) and network disconnectivity from severe flooding (scenario-2). In addition, four evacuation scenarios are simulated: planned evacuation (scenario-3), contraflow on key corridors (scenario-4), phased evacuation (scenario-5) and a combination of contraflow with staging (scenario-6). Network performance is evaluated based on travel times and evacuation outcomes under these scenarios. Findings In the disruption scenarios, scenario-2 results indicate that nearly 65% of origin-destination pairs experience travel times exceeding the base model’s maximum. In the evacuation scenarios, the combined contraflow and staging strategy (scenario-6) yields the best results, with most zones completing evacuation in under 60 min. Research limitations/implications Public transportation has not been considered when calibrating the road network, and the driver behaviour used in the model is suitable for daily conditions. It does not reflect behaviour during disruption conditions, which may affect the accuracy of the results. Originality/value This study demonstrates the utility of traffic simulation models in assessing urban road network vulnerabilities and evacuation strategies under heterogeneous traffic conditions. It provides insights into effective evacuation planning and highlights the benefits of combining contraflow and staging strategies.