Cloud Adoption in the Digital Era: An Interpretable Machine Learning Analysis of National Readiness and Structural Disparities Across the EU

As digital transformation accelerates across Europe, cloud computing plays an increasingly central role in modernizing public services and private enterprises. Yet adoption rates vary markedly among EU member states, reflecting deeper structural differences in digital capacity. This study employs explainable machine learning to uncover the drivers of national cloud adoption across 27 EU countries using harmonized panel datasets spanning 2014–2021 and 2014–2024. A methodological pipeline combining Random Forests (RF), XGBoost, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Elastic Net regression is implemented, with model tuning conducted via nested cross-validation. Among individual models, Elastic Net and SVM delivered superior predictive performance, while a stacked ensemble achieved the best overall accuracy (MAE = 0.214, R2 = 0.948). The most interpretable model, a standardized RF with country fixed effects, attained MAE = 0.321, and R2 = 0.864, making it well-suited for policy analysis. Variable importance analysis reveals that the density of ICT specialists is the strongest predictor of adoption, followed by broadband access and higher education. Fixed-effect modeling confirms significant national heterogeneity, with countries like Finland and Luxembourg consistently leading adoption, while Bulgaria and Romania exhibit structural barriers. Partial dependence and SHAP analyses reveal nonlinear complementarities between digital skills and infrastructure. A hierarchical clustering of countries reveals three distinct digital maturity profiles, offering tailored policy pathways. These results directly support the EU Digital Decade’s strategic targets and provide actionable insights for advancing inclusive and resilient digital transformation across the Union.