Land Cover Transformations and Thermal Responses in Representative North African Oases from 2000 to 2023

Oases in arid regions are critical ecosystems, providing essential ecological, agricultural, and socio-economic functions. However, urbanization and climate change increasingly threaten their sustainability. This study examines land cover (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST) dynamics in four representative North African oases: Tolga (Algeria), Nefta (Tunisia), Ghadames (Libya), and Siwa (Egypt) over the period 2000–2023, using Landsat satellite imagery. A three-step analysis was employed: calculation of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), NDBI (Normalized Difference Built-up Index), and LST, followed by supervised land cover classification and statistical tests to examine the relationships between the studied variables. The results reveal substantial reductions in bare soil (e.g., 48.10% in Siwa) and notable urban expansion (e.g., 136.01% in Siwa and 48.46% in Ghadames). Vegetation exhibited varied trends, with a slight decline in Tolga (0.26%) and a significant increase in Siwa (+27.17%). LST trends strongly correlated with land cover changes, demonstrating increased temperatures in urbanized areas and moderated temperatures in vegetated zones. Notably, this study highlights that traditional urban designs integrated with dense palm groves significantly mitigate thermal stress, achieving lower LST compared to modern urban expansions characterized by sparse, heat-absorbing surfaces. In contrast, areas dominated by fragmented vegetation or seasonal crops exhibited reduced cooling capacity, underscoring the critical role of vegetation type, spatial arrangement, and urban morphology in regulating oasis microclimates. Preserving palm groves, which are increasingly vulnerable to heat-driven pests, diseases and the introduction of exotic species grown for profit, together with a revival of the traditional compact urban fabric that provides shade and has been empirically confirmed by other oasis studies to moderate the microclimate more effectively than recent low-density extensions, will maintain the crucial synergy between buildings and vegetation, enhance the cooling capacity of these settlements, and safeguard their tangible and intangible cultural heritage.