Large Language Models and Futures Price Factors in China

ABSTRACT We leverage the capacity of large language models such as Generative Pre‐trained Transformer (GPT) in constructing factor models for Chinese futures markets. We successfully obtained 40 factors to design single‐factor and multi‐factor portfolios through long‐short and long‐only strategies, conducting backtests during the in‐sample and out‐of‐sample periods. Comprehensive empirical analysis reveals that GPT‐generated factors deliver remarkable Sharpe ratios and annualized returns while maintaining acceptable maximum drawdowns. Notably, the GPT‐based factor models also achieve significant alphas over the IPCA benchmark. Moreover, these factors demonstrate significant performance across extensive robustness tests, particularly excelling after the cutoff date of GPT's training data.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Futures Markets
Published
2025-11-02
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.70061
Primary Topic
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Type
article
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article

Large Language Models and Futures Price Factors in China

Yuhan Cheng, H.F. Zhou, Yanchu Liu
Journal of Futures Markets
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
article

Large Language Models and Futures Price Factors in China

Yuhan Cheng, H.F. Zhou, Yanchu Liu
article en

Abstract

ABSTRACT We leverage the capacity of large language models such as Generative Pre‐trained Transformer (GPT) in constructing factor models for Chinese futures markets. We successfully obtained 40 factors to design single‐factor and multi‐factor portfolios through long‐short and long‐only strategies, conducting backtests during the in‐sample and out‐of‐sample periods. Comprehensive empirical analysis reveals that GPT‐generated factors deliver remarkable Sharpe ratios and annualized returns while maintaining acceptable maximum drawdowns. Notably, the GPT‐based factor models also achieve significant alphas over the IPCA benchmark. Moreover, these factors demonstrate significant performance across extensive robustness tests, particularly excelling after the cutoff date of GPT's training data.

Journal of Futures MarketsVol. 46(2)
Shandong University (CN), Sun Yat-sen University (CN), China Mobile (China) (CN), Shandong Management University (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 63%
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
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