Risk ranking and risk-based prioritisation of aflatoxin M ₁ in milk and dairy products supporting risk-based monitoring and food safety governance

In Serbia, contamination of milk and dairy products with aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) represents a recurrent food safety challenge, reflecting the dairy chain's susceptibility to climate extremes, feed contamination, and improper storage conditions. Protecting public health, particularly that of children, requires systematic approaches that move beyond descriptive monitoring towards structured risk prioritisation. The aim of this study was to apply the FAO (2020) and EFSA (2015) methodologies for risk ranking and prioritisation to AFM1 in Serbia, thereby providing an evidence-based framework to guide risk-based monitoring and food safety governance. The analysis was based on data synthesised from peer-reviewed studies on AFM1 occurrence, dietary exposure, and risk characterisation in different dairy product categories. Risk matrices were constructed by combining likelihood of contamination with severity of health outcomes, expressed through Margin of Exposure (MOE) values. In addition, binomial probability principles were applied to design optimised sampling strategies. Results showed that raw and pasteurised/UHT milk represent the highest-priority categories, reflecting both high contamination frequencies and dietary importance for children. Average MOE values exceeded the health-based threshold, but high consumers, particularly toddlers, were at risk of falling below safe levels. Probability-based sampling demonstrated how resources can be rationally allocated to maximise detection assurance. This study concludes that structured risk ranking and prioritisation provide a transparent foundation for proportionate AFM1 monitoring and control.