Climate‐Driven Changes in Spring Dust Emissions Over China: WRF‐Chem Projections Under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 Scenarios

Abstract Global climate change is significantly impacting dust emission patterns in arid and semi‐arid regions, posing challenges to environmental quality and human health. However, the impacts of future climate change on dust emissions in China remain insufficiently understood. This study employed the Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) model to project future dust emissions in China under two climate scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) for the years 2030, 2060, and 2090. Results indicated that in the near term (2030 and 2060), dust emissions were projected to be higher under the high‐emission SSP5‐8.5 scenario compared to the moderate‐emission SSP2‐4.5 scenario. This suggests that increased greenhouse gas concentrations and associated climatic changes may enhance conditions favorable for dust generation, such as elevated temperatures and reduced soil moisture. By 2090, however, this trend may reverse, with SSP2‐4.5 exhibiting higher dust emissions than SSP5‐8.5. This reversal highlights the complex, non‐linear interactions between long‐term climate variables and dust emission processes, potentially due to changes in precipitation patterns, atmospheric circulation, and vegetation cover. The spatial distribution of dust emissions consistently remains concentrated in northwestern China and southern Mongolia across all scenarios and time periods, emphasizing the persistent role of major dust source regions like the Taklamakan Desert and the Gobi Desert. These findings underscore the need for targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies to manage the environmental and health impacts associated with dust emissions in the context of climate change.