Anthropogenic land conversion and greenhouse gas emissions drive a decline in bumblebee habitat suitability in Yunnan, China

Anthropogenic stresses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are among the most important drivers of biodiversity loss. Bumblebee species are sensitive to habitat changes, and these stressors affect biodiversity by altering their habitat. Within Yunnan, anthropogenic land conversion is increasing, and GHG emissions are also rising; however, their impact on the habitat suitability of bumblebee species remains unknown. Hence, the current study aimed to examine how changes in land-use/land-cover (ΔLULC; 10 variables), normalized difference vegetation index (ΔNDVI; 1 variable), and greenhouse gas emissions (ΔGHG; 6 variables) affected the habitat suitability of 15 bumblebee species during 2017 to 2024. The threats posed by these drivers to bumblebee species were assessed using geographical information systems, habitat suitability modeling, remote sensing, and structural equation modeling (SEM). Results indicated that, over the past 8 yr (2017 to 2024), 14 of 17 environmental drivers showed significant changes. As a result, 60% of bumblebee species (9 of 15) experienced a significant decline in habitat suitability. SEM showed that the latent parcel variables, human-driven land use change, major GHG, and secondary air pollutants, had strong negative effects on bumblebee species. These findings suggest that human-driven land use change, as well as GHG emissions, are important factors associated with declining habitat suitability in Yunnan. Integrated land-management and GHG emission-reduction strategies should be implemented to safeguard pollinator communities under ongoing environmental change.