Transforming Riyadh: urban development, quality of life, and spatial equity under Vision 2030

Abstract Riyadh’s transformation under Vision 2030 has relied on large-scale urban projects to enhance livability, yet concerns remain over whether their benefits are equitably distributed across the city. This study employs a mixed-methods framework, combining a three-round Delphi survey of 15 cross-sector experts with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) spatial analysis of 36 Quality of Life Program indicators and project-level datasets. Results show that while strategic projects such as Sports Boulevard, Qiddiya, Diriyah Development, and Riyadh Expo 2030 contribute strongly to tourism, culture, entertainment, and urban design, the sports domain underperforms due to limited accessibility for women, youth, and underserved districts. GIS analysis further reveals stark disparities, with southern and eastern neighborhoods emerging as ‘QOL deserts’ lacking adequate cultural, recreational, and green infrastructure. By integrating spatial equity theory with Vision 2030 policy evaluation, the study advances understanding of how mega-project-driven urban transformation can simultaneously improve quality of life while reinforcing socio-spatial divides. The findings highlight the need for scenario-based interventions—such as decentralized cultural programming, gender- and youth-inclusive sports facilities, affordability measures, and equity-oriented key performance indicators (KPIs)—to ensure distributive justice. These insights extend beyond Saudi Arabia, offering transferable lessons for emerging cities pursuing mega-project urbanism under national development agendas.