Assessing and forecasting water security in transboundary river basins via inter- and intra- subsystem dynamics

Mekong River basin. This paper attempts to propose a new framework for watershed water security assessment. The framework aims to construct a Synthetic Water Security (SWS) evaluation index system based on the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model from four dimensions of vulnerability, sensitivity, development and sustainability, and to analyse the level of SWS in transboundary river basins by using a Comprehensive Co-Evolution Model (CCEM) that takes into account both absolute and relative adaptability. The CCEM model was used to evaluate the SWS in the Mekong River basin (MRB), and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is used to predict the SWS development trend of the MRB in the future. The results show that the weight analysis of each subsystem is development > vulnerability > sustainability > sensitivity. Specifically, the vulnerability subsystem displays a fluctuating downward trend, the sensitivity subsystem shows a trend that decreases initially and then increases, while the development and sustainability subsystems exhibit a consistent upward trend. From 1995–2020, the SWS of MRB rose from a low level to a medium level. The SWS of all the riparian countries showed a positive trajectory. Between 2025 and 2030, China’s SWS will be anticipated to remain at a high level, while other countries are expected to stay at a medium level. • The concept of synthetic water security is proposed from a system perspective. • Use the Comprehensive Co-Evolution Model to assess synthetic water security. • Use the Long Short-Term Memory to predict the synthetic water security levels.