Synthetic target trial emulation and predictive modeling of amylin-pathway therapies for obesity and type 2 diabetes
Synthetic target trial emulation with structured validation (leave-trial-out, posterior predictive checks, simulation-based calibration) demonstrated promising evidence for amylin-pathway development optimization. Benefit-risk frontier analysis identified an optimal 10-20 mg subcutaneous therapeutic window, and heterogeneity quantification through maximum a posteriori (MAP) predictive interval provides design-ready estimates for confirmatory trials requiring around 800-1,200 participants per arm for 90 % power.
Authors
- Abdulmalik Alsaif
- Muteb Alanazi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-5006-1358)
- Ahmed Y. Azzam (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4256-0159)
- Abdullah Alshehri
- Atheer M. Almutairi
- Faisal A. Al-Harbi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-7741-4670)
- Elan A. Aleidan
- Ghaida S. Alabdulaaly (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9609-0779)
Institutions
- University of Suffolk (GB)
- Qassim University (SA)
- King Abdulaziz University (SA)
- King Fahd Medical City (SA)
- Al-Ghad International Health Sciences Colleges (SA)
- Artificial Intelligence in Medicine (Canada) (CA)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Metabolism Open
- Published
- 2025-10-31
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.metop.2025.100414
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 2.63