Can Bilateralism Endure? The 2023-25 Gaza War and the Abraham Accords Framework

The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, marked a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics by normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab states: the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. These agreements emphasized novel types of Arab-Israeli economic partnerships, security cooperation, and public diplomacy, representing a shift from earlier Israeli peace deals with Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994), which did not see significant growth in the states’ bilateral cooperation and coordination, particularly in non-security areas. And despite the unprecedented October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and the ensuing Gaza and Lebanon wars, which intensified regional tensions and sparked widespread anti-Israel protests, the Abraham Accords have largely remained intact. This article argues that the core drivers behind the Accords—security, trade, and pragmatic diplomatic cooperation—continue to shape these partnerships, suggesting the potential for the Accords framework to endure. Further, the accords can serve as a model for future Arab-Israeli peace processes, including ongoing Saudi-Israeli normalization efforts, particularly alongside concerted efforts to reinvigorate the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.