Threat Perception in Taiwan: Trend and Implications

The rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, driven by China’s growing aggression, have prompted Taiwan to explore ways to bolster its defense and deterrence capabilities. Given that successful deterrence requires the involvement of both military and civilian sectors, the Taiwanese public’s threat perception—specifically, how they view China as a security threat—becomes crucial. This article examines changes in Taiwan’s public threat perception of China. It finds that while Taiwan’s public threat perception has increased since the late 2010s, this shift is more nuanced. External events likely contributed to an overall rise in threat perception, but Chinese coercive actions were associated with a reduced sense of imminent war. Additionally, individual factors, such as partisanship, also played a role in shaping threat perception. The increased perception of threat has been linked to greater public support for distancing from China and strengthening defense. These findings have significant implications for Taiwan’s military policy and reforms, as well as for the international community’s policy regarding the Taiwan Strait.