Assessing the potential for solar development on coal mine land in India

Abstract India’s solar electricity generation capacity is concentrated in its western and southern states, while coal mining is concentrated in central and eastern India. Previous studies have found that increasing solar capacity in India’s coal belt may ameliorate the distributional consequences of electricity decarbonization, but we lack detailed assessments of the tradeoffs involved. Here, we evaluate the costs and emissions reduction benefits associated with building solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity on land currently used for opencast (OC) coal mining in India. We use 50 years of weather data to quantify the P10, P50, and P90 capacity factors and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for identically configured PV arrays at the 100 largest OC mines. At 97 mines, the expected LCOE is higher than at the Pavagada Solar Park in southern India that we use as a benchmark. When adjusted for the value of avoided <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>CO</mml:mi> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> emissions, 49 mines spread across Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh have lower social costs of solar generation than Pavagada. For the 50 largest mines, we compile acreage information and estimate that they can support up to 28 GW of new solar PV capacity, approximately one-third of India’s total solar PV capacity today. This capacity would avoid approximately 47 Mt <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>CO</mml:mi> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> , or US$2.4 billion in <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>CO</mml:mi> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> damages, per year at abatement costs between US$15–28/t <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>CO</mml:mi> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> . Mines expected to be depleted by 2025 may support annual abatement of up to 4.8 Mt <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>CO</mml:mi> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> yr −1 , with additional abatement of 6.5 Mt <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>CO</mml:mi> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> yr −1 and 8.6 Mt <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>CO</mml:mi> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> yr −1 possible at mines closing between 2025–30 and 2030–35, respectively. Our results show that depleted mine land in India’s coal belt can play a meaningful role in an electricity capacity mix that minimizes the combination of private costs and <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>CO</mml:mi> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> damages.