Risk Managed Demand: Operational Risk Management in Police Response to Calls for Service

This study applies risk management strategies from commercial aviation to better understand when it is safe to send unarmed responders to 911/999 calls. By analyzing three years of community-generated call data from Seattle, Washington (727,423 calls across 356 types), this research assesses risk, or the “credible worst-case scenario” for each call type. Findings reveal nearly half (48.9%) of all call types could be safely addressed by diversified, non-police responders rather than the traditional “all-hazards” police approach. Observations that the all-hazards responder is often necessary to identify such opportunities, or what we term “Ratcliffe's Paradox,” are confirmed. This study indicates a systematic approach to risk management could enable such a diversified responses, potentially freeing up to 26% of police resources currently allocated to non-police calls. A Risk Managed Demand (RMD) could improve public safety outcomes, reduce the collateral harms of armed responses, and operationalize Alternative First Responder programs resulting in an optimal allocation of resources.