Predicting EU orchard farmers' adoption intentions for pesticide-reducing innovations using an extended theory of planned behavior

Reducing synthetic pesticide use is central to the EU Green Deal. However, with legislative progress stalled, farmers increasingly bear the responsibility for implementing pesticide reduction. This highlights the need to understand how decisions are made and what shapes farmers' intentions to adopt technologies that reduced pesticide use, particularly in orchard systems where pesticide dependence remains high despite the availability of promising alternatives. This study examines stakeholder roles in orchard pest management, identifies key drivers of farmers’ adoption intentions, and develops a tool to predict adoption likelihood. A mixed-methods approach was applied, combining expert interviews (n = 16) and a structured survey of orchard farmers (n = 354). We extended the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) by incorporating three additional constructs: perceived cost, relative advantage of current practices, and perceived ease of use, all based on established behavioral theories. Results show that decision-making involves multiple stakeholders and is influenced by factors such as farm size, ownership structure, and external pressures. Meanwhile, structural equation modeling shows that attitudes and perceived ease of use significantly boost adoption intentions. In contrast, perceived cost and the relative advantage of current practices serve as barriers. Subjective norms and perceived behavioral control were not significant predictors. Based on these findings, a web-based adoption intention predictive tool was developed to support stakeholders in assessing adoption likelihood. The study offers practical insights for reducing adoption barriers, strengthening positive attitudes toward innovation, and supporting sustainable pest management in orchard systems. • Pest control decisions in orchards involve multiple stakeholders beyond farmers. • Attitude strongly predicts farmers' intentions to adopt pesticide-reducing technologies. • Perceived cost and relative advantage of current methods' hinder adoption intentions. • Subjective norms and perceived behavioral control have less impact on adoption intentions. • AIPT helps to predict farmers' likelihood to adopt pesticide-reducing innovations.