STOCHASTIC EFFICIENCY OF WIND TIME SERIES IN NORTHEAST BRAZIL: A NOVEL APPROACH BASED ON INFORMATION-THEORY QUANTIFIERS

In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of wind speed in the Northeast region of Brazil, based on hourly time series spanning 12 years. Information-theoretic complexity measures, such as Shannon entropy and Fisher information, were applied to the wind speed data. The inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation method was employed to estimate wind behavior in unmonitored locations. The time series were evaluated in the Fisher information–Shannon entropy plane, allowing the identification of stations exhibiting more stochastic behavior and, consequently, greater potential for wind energy generation. In this context, we introduced a novel indicator to assess wind quality for energy production purposes, namely, the Stochastic Efficiency. The results indicate that a substantial portion of the region presents significant wind energy potential, especially in coastal and semi-arid areas. Stations with higher entropy and lower Fisher information, such as Serra Talhada–PE, Piatã–BA, and Colinas–MA, exhibited higher stochastic efficiency and unpredictability — an advantageous trait for wind power generation. Conversely, stations such as Maceió–AL and Aracati–CE showed greater informational structure — lower stochastic efficiency and unpredictability — indicating more regular wind patterns, which may be less suitable for certain renewable applications. This approach, applied here for the first time, proved robust for characterizing wind resources and ranking meteorological stations in terms of their suitability for clean energy production. The findings provide valuable insights for energy planning, strategic site selection for wind farms, and the improvement of statistical and predictive modeling in renewable energy contexts. The study also highlights the growing importance of the states of Bahia, Rio Grande do Norte, Piauí, and Ceará in the national energy matrix, solidifying the Northeast as Brazil’s leading wind energy-producing region.