Weathering Conflict: Impacts and Solutions for Protecting Hydrometeorological Infrastructure during Armed Conflict

Abstract There is limited research on how armed conflict negatively impacts hydrometeorological infrastructure and how this can be protected to enhance the functionality of early warning systems. This paper presents evidence about how and why conflict has directly and indirectly impacted hydrometeorological infrastructure and how this impacts the functioning of early warning systems (EWS) and potential solutions. We conducted semistructured interviews with 17 experts and performed a quantitative analysis of hydrometeorological and conflict data to investigate the connections between the lack of reporting from hydrometeorological stations and conflict incidents occurring within a 5-km radius of the stations. We found that conflict limits the collection, protection, and storage of hydrometeorological observations, which are crucial for producing weather forecasts and warnings. We found that hydrometeorological infrastructure has been directly destroyed and damaged by armed groups and indirectly hindered by insecurity, which limits access to conduct repairs and maintenance of infrastructure. We also found that when stations are installed in areas where the local population is unaware of their purpose, there is a lack of interest and incentive to maintain and protect them from vandalism. This research proposes a three-tier process for hydrometeorological infrastructure success: 1) Meteorological services should conduct conflict scenario analyses to define infrastructure needs, potential impacts of conflicts, and measures to mitigate such risks. 2) EWS donors and implementers should integrate a sociotechnical process to involve local communities and peace organizations during the lifetime of the infrastructure. 3) Governments and international financial institutions should coordinate planning for hydrometeorological infrastructure development with a common goal of enhancing global and national forecasting in conflict-affected regions. Significance Statement The purpose of this research is to reduce a knowledge gap about the impacts of armed conflict on hydrometeorological infrastructure and data. We found that hydrometeorological infrastructure has been directly destroyed and damaged by armed groups and indirectly hindered by insecurity, which limits access to conduct repairs and maintenance of infrastructure. The negative impacts of armed conflict on this infrastructure in places like Sudan, Colombia, and Cameroon reduce weather and climate services, jeopardizing early warning systems. We argue that there are avenues to reduce the impacts of conflict and enhance the protection of hydrometeorological infrastructure in conflict-affected countries, including supporting community ownership as part of a sociotechnical process in the hydrometeorological infrastructure process and leveraging International Humanitarian Law.