Pastoralists’ perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate variability in Inner Mongolia: A multivariate probit analysis

Climate change poses severe challenges to pastoral livelihoods in arid regions. Using a multivariate probit model on 261 household surveys and meteorological data (1981–2014) from Inner Mongolia, China, this study examines pastoralists' climate perceptions, adaptation strategies, and barriers. Pastoralists accurately perceived rising temperatures but were sensitive to short-term rainfall variability. The primary adaptation strategies were purchasing fodder, reducing livestock, and renting pasture. Key determinants included production capacity, risk-buffering capacity (e.g., credit, tenure), and social networks. Major barriers were financial constraints (47 %), labor shortages (46 %), and limited credit access (32 %). The model revealed significant correlations between strategies, showing complements (e.g., fodder purchase and pasture rental) and trade-offs. We recommend targeted interventions like technical training, climate information, and credit schemes to enhance adaptive capacity. This study provides the first MVP analysis of simultaneous adaptation strategies in Inner Mongolia's pastoral systems, offering insights into simultaneous strategy use and barrier diagnostics in arid grassland ecosystems. • Pastoralists accurately perceived long-term warming but were sensitive to short-term rainfall variability. • Purchasing fodder, reducing livestock, and renting pasture were the top three adaptation strategies adopted by pastoralists. • Financial constraints, labor shortages, and limited access to credit were identified as the major barriers to adaptation. • The MVP model revealed complementary strategies and trade-offs among adaptations.