Potential future distribution shifts for <i>Afzelia africana</i> Sm. ex Pers. and <i>Pterocarpus erinaceus</i> Poir. in the context of climate change in Benin

Abstract Climate change poses significant challenges to the survival of ecologically and economically important tree species. This study uses species distribution modelling to assess the current and future potential habitats of Afzelia africana and Pterocarpus erinaceus in Benin under moderate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios. They are multipurpose trees listed on the IUCN Red List due to threats such as illegal logging and low natural regeneration rates. By integrating bioclimatic variables and occurrence data using the method of the Maximum Entropy under MaxEnt program, the results reveal critical habitat shifts, including significant contractions in highly suitable areas under severe climate conditions. Under current climatic conditions, approximately 85% of Benin’s territory is identified as a potentially suitable habitat for Afzelia africana and Pterocarpus erinaceus , indicating a significant area for their conservation. Future projections suggest that national parks, some of which currently include unsuitable zones, will offer increasingly suitable habitats, emphasizing their importance in climate adaptation strategies. The extensive availability of suitable habitats highlights the potential for future reintroductions or natural population expansions, ensuring the continued survival and ecological roles of these species in the region. Practical implications include conducting spatial prioritization using habitat suitability maps to extend current protected area networks, and focusing restoration efforts on medium-suitability areas. These findings provide a foundation for informed conservation strategies that align with climate adaptation goals.