Transformation of Routine Jobs in the Turkish Labor Market: A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of Artificial Intelligence and Technological Change on Employment (2014–2024)

This study quantitatively analyzes the transformation of Türkiye’s labor market between 2014 and 2024 in terms of job task intensity. Using Mihaylov and Tijdens’ (2019) ISCO-08 task dataset and TurkStat employment data, it identifies major structural shifts driven by technological progress and artificial intelligence–assisted automation. The share of non-routine cognitive jobs increased by 5.2%, while routine manual and non-routine manual jobs declined by 3.3% and 1.8%, respectively. These findings indicate a transition toward knowledge-based sectors and growing employment polarization. High-skilled professional and technical roles expanded, whereas middle-skilled occupations, including skilled agriculture and artisanal work, contracted. Wage structures increasingly favored high-skilled, non-routine cognitive occupations, while gender pay disparities persisted. The study underscores the need for vocational education reforms, targeted incentives, and large-scale reskilling programs to enhance labor market adaptability to technological change.