The varying effects of dollar stores on food access: A machine learning analysis

Abstract Dollar store proliferation across the United States since the early 2000s has prompted numerous communities to enact policies restricting their growth. Motivated by policy concerns about reduced food access, we investigate whether dollar store entry reduces access to grocery stores, measured by the presence of grocery stores near households. We find significant effects in urban block groups that experience dollar store entry with a single grocery store at baseline, constituting 14% of treated urban block groups from 2006 to 2020. Urban‐area impacts are strongly correlated with the Black population share, poverty rate, dependence on public assistance, and levels of vacant housing and vehicle access. Rural‐area effects are negligible or zero in our main analyses, though incorporating smaller retailers in our food access definition reveals modest but significant impacts. Food access concerns driving dollar store policies may be valid in specific communities.