Strategic Convergence or Tactical Accommodation? An Analysis of China–Taliban Engagements Since the Taliban’s Takeover

Since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, China’s engagement with Afghanistan has evolved rapidly, raising important questions about the nature and implications of this relationship in a post-Western context. This study examines whether China–Taliban interactions signify strategic convergence — anchored in shared long-term interests — or tactical accommodation, characterized by short-term pragmatism. Specifically, it explores the alignment of economic, security, and diplomatic objectives, the Taliban’s receptiveness to Chinese partnerships in pursuit of legitimacy and economic stability, and the wider consequences for regional order, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) connectivity, and global governance norms. Adopting a hybrid realist–constructivist framework, the research integrates material factors such as security concerns, access to resources, and geopolitical positioning with ideational dimensions including sovereignty and non-interference. Using a qualitative case study approach that draws on official statements, trade data, and scholarly analyses, the findings suggest a dynamic interplay of convergence and pragmatism. China seeks to counter security threats and access Afghanistan’s mineral wealth, while offering diplomatic and economic support that enhances the Taliban’s legitimacy. Yet the partnership remains cautious, constrained by Afghanistan’s instability and reputational risks. Collectively, the findings suggest, China’s non-conditional, non-interference approach challenges Western models of engagement, reshaping regional security architectures and offering fresh insights into the dynamics of great power politics in a multipolar world.