Navigating nickel and cobalt supply uncertainty: Shocks from overseas reliance and countermeasures for self-sufficiency

Facing complex international situation such as geopolitics, superpower games and resource nationalism, the overseas supply uncertainty of nickel and cobalt continues to increase, which not only seriously threatens the supply security, but also impacts self-supply. However, quantitative research addressing this issue remains limited. This study employs a system dynamics model coupled with scenario analysis to quantify the specific impacts of overseas supply uncertainty on the domestic self-supply of nickel and cobalt. It then delves into the positive effects of five mining and recycling strategies, both individually and in coordinated implementation. The results show that: (1) Compared with the expansion of overseas supply, its contraction has a greater impact on the self-supply, which increases the primary supply of nickel and cobalt in the short and medium terms, while is unfavorable to the long-term primary supply and nickel secondary supply. (2) The mining countermeasures are conducive to the increase of primary supply in the short term but not conducive to the long term. They accelerate the consumption of primary resources and advance the onset of "reserve shortages". Therefore, it is necessary to surmount reserves limitations. (3) The recycling strategies could effectively cope with the scenario of low overseas supply contraction by improving the secondary supply of nickel and cobalt. While due to the substitution effect, they have a negative impact on primary supply. (4) The coordinated implementation of mining and recycling strategies can balance sustainable resource utilization, demand adaptation, and self-supply support, while mitigating the risks from tightening overseas supply constraints. The research results provide not only a theoretical basis for preventing overseas supply risks, as well as a practical reference for the development, utilization, and integrated allocation of primary and secondary nickel and cobalt resources in China.