Agricultural trade dynamics in the TFTA: assessing complementarity and comparative advantage

Purpose This study aims to analyze agricultural trade dynamics within the tripartite free trade area (TFTA) to identify opportunities for enhanced market integration among the 26 partner states. Design/methodology/approach This study used two analytical approaches: trade complementarity index (TCI) and revealed comparative advantage (RCA) to analyze agricultural trade dynamics within the TFTA from 2016 to 2023. Secondary data on import and export flows, sourced primarily from the UN COMTRADE database via the International Trade Centre’s Trade Map, focused on agricultural products categorized under the harmonized system (HS). Findings The findings reveal that South Africa and Egypt are the only high-value agricultural exporters, with the majority of member states underrepresented in the TFTA market, while 67% of agricultural imports are sourced from non-partner states, indicating untapped trade potential. Practical implications The study recommends that member states enhance production and export capacities, particularly in high-demand sectors and develop targeted policies to boost intra-TFTA trade. Specific strategies should leverage the comparative advantages of medium-value exporters like Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania while addressing the dominance of non-partner states in the TFTA agricultural market. For Tanzania, expediting ratification of the TFTA is critical to capitalizing on its strong trade complementarity and comparative advantages. Originality/value This research contributes originality by providing a detailed examination of trade complementarity and comparative advantages among TFTA member states, highlighting specific areas for policy intervention.