Dynamic Modeling of Policy-Driven Power Sector Transition: Insights from the Energy–Water–Carbon Nexus

To address the climate crisis, policy interventions are driving a structural transition in the power sector, which potentially alters the evolutionary trajectories of related carbon emissions and water consumption. Based on China’s 2060 Carbon Neutrality Initiative, an integrated system dynamics model was developed to analyze the power generation transition and its interlinked impacts on decarbonization and water sustainability, considering policy-driven electricity generation and the energy–water–carbon nexus. The model was applied to China over the period 2000 to 2060. Results indicate that by 2060, China’s electricity demand is projected to surge to 13 trillion kWh, with thermal power generation peaking around 2030 before declining to a lower level. This process would achieve cumulative reductions of 65 gigatons of carbon emissions and water savings of 60 km 3 . Wind and solar power are expected to account for 70% of the total amount, becoming the primary substitutes for the phased-out thermal power capacity. Scenario simulations reveal that this can enhance synergistic benefits for carbon mitigation and water conservation. However, the deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies may introduce a trade-off between carbon reduction and water consumption. To mitigate this issue, integrating water-saving devices as air-cooled units into power production chains could offset additional water consumption. Clearly, the phaseout of thermal power represents a pivotal measure for optimizing the power industry. The substitution by high-quality energy products will benefit carbon emission reduction and sustainable water utilization, yet when deploying new technologies, the integration of functional and efficient technologies should be taken to prevent unintended trade-offs.