Analyzing Carbon Regulation Impacts on Maritime Sector Using Fuzzy Delphi–DEMATEL–ISM Approach

With the rapid increase in global trade in recent years, the demand for maritime transportation has significantly intensified vessel activity, leading to a considerable rise in carbon emissions originating from the maritime sector. As a result, in line with the 2050 decarbonization targets set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the European Union (EU), legal regulations addressing carbon emissions have been dynamically tightened and gradually enacted. This study aims to determine the significance levels of the factors affecting the maritime sector in response to carbon emission regulations and to reveal the interrelationships among these factors. In this context, the criteria regarding the impacts of climate-related carbon emission regulations were identified based on expert opinions using the Fuzzy Delphi method. The interaction strengths and significance levels among the factors were analyzed using the Fuzzy DEMATEL method, and the relationships were modeled through Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). According to the findings, “Fuel Preferences and Alternative Fuel Usage” (C2) emerged as the most critical factor under recent international regulations. “Adaptation to International and National Regulations” (C8) and “Port Infrastructure” (C3) were also identified as the key factors impacting shipping industry efficiency. The analysis revealed that “Logistics Costs” (C5) and “Environmental Protection and Sustainability” (C7) are the most significantly affected outcome factors within the system. The hierarchical structural modeling revealed that “Port Infrastructure” (C3) serves as a defining starting point within the system. This study contributes to the literature by uncovering the causal relationships among the factors determining the effectiveness of ever-evolving carbon emission regulations. It offers a valuable decision-support tool for maritime companies and policymakers. Accordingly, it provides an alternative roadmap and a structural model indicating which strategic areas should be prioritized to achieve the targeted low-carbon emission goals in maritime transportation.