LSTM-Based Time Series Forecasting of User-Derived Quality Signals in Mobile Banking Systems

Mobile banking applications play a crucial role in providing users with access to financial services, and the quality of user experience is a key factor for their sustainability. This study investigates the predictability of application quality signals derived from user ratings of five leading mobile banking apps in Türkiye. The main problem addressed is understanding how these user-driven quality indicators evolve over time and identifying effective methods for forecasting them. This research problem is critical for understanding how banks can monitor customer satisfaction and reputational risk in real time, as fluctuations in app ratings directly affect user trust and engagement. For this purpose, daily average rating series collected from the Google Play Store were analyzed using LSTM-based time series models, and the results were benchmarked against the seasonal naïve (SNaive) method. The findings show that LSTM consistently achieved lower error rates across all banks, with particularly reliable forecasts for YapıKredi and Akbank, where MAPE values ranged between 16% and 28%. However, low R2 values for some banks suggest limitations in long-term forecasting. The contribution of this study lies in demonstrating that user experience signals in mobile banking can be systematically monitored from a time series perspective, and that LSTM-based approaches provide a more effective method for capturing these quality dynamics.