Towards Sustainable Development: Landslide Susceptibility Assessment with Sample Optimization in Guiyang County, China

Here we present a high-resolution landslide susceptibility model for Guiyang County, China, developed to support sustainable disaster risk management. Our approach couples optimized positive and negative training samples with an ensemble of machine-learning algorithms to maximize predictive fidelity. We compiled a georeferenced inventory of 146 landslides by integrating historical records with systematic field validation. Sample optimization was central to our methodology: landslide presence points were refined via buffer-based dilution, and four classifiers—SVM, LDA, RF, and ET—were trained with identical covariate sets to ensure comparability. Three strategies for selecting pseudo-absences—buffering, low-slope filtering, and coupling with the IOE—were benchmarked. The Slope-IOE-O model, which synergizes low-gradient screening with entropy-weighted sampling, yielded the highest predictive capacity (AUC = 0.965). SHAP-based interpretability revealed that slope, monthly maximum rainfall, surface roughness, and elevation collectively dominate susceptibility, with pronounced non-linearities and interactions. Slope contribution peaks at 20–30°, monthly maximum rainfall exhibits a critical threshold near 225 mm, and the synergy between high roughness and road density amplifies landslide risk. Spatially, susceptibility follows a pronounced north–south gradient, with high-hazard corridors aligned along northern and southern mountain belts and the urban core of southern Guiyang County. By integrating rigorously curated training data with robust machine-learning workflows, this study provides a transferable framework for proactive landslide risk assessment, offering scientific support for sustainable land-use planning and resilient development in mountainous regions.