Modelling the Cyclical Variability of Nitrogen Dioxide in Urban Areas of Poland, 2001–2021

High concentrations of NO2 in the air have a negative impact on human health, increasing the risk of cardiovascular diseases such as heart attacks and strokes, as well as causing pulmonary oedema and weak heartbeat. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model describing the cyclical variability of NO2 concentrations, which is crucial for risk assessment and preventive action planning. Based on long-term data from 47 measuring stations located throughout Poland, the sum of sines model was fitted, which reflected seasonal and cyclical fluctuations in NO2 concentrations and allowed the identification of periods with the highest NO2 values, especially in winter months and during traffic peaks. The results can be used to support environmental policy and decision-making on preventive measures, for example, related to traffic restrictions, as well as in sustainable urban planning and in the protection of public health and the environment, thereby contributing to the achievement of global sustainable development goals.