Sustainable Development and Environmental Harmony: An Investigation of the Elements Affecting Carbon Emissions Risk

Sustainable development requires integrating economic growth with environmental protection; however, rising carbon emissions pose a substantial threat to ecological balance. The conclusions of this study regarding the determinants of carbon emissions risk within the broader sustainability framework—coal and oil consumption, foreign direct investment (FDI), and economic growth—are critically significant. The application of ARDL and Dynamic ARDL estimate methods indicates that coal and oil consumption, along with foreign direct investment (FDI), exert a considerable and favourable influence on carbon emissions. The Toda–Yamamoto causality study indicates a bidirectional influence between coal usage and carbon emissions. Conversely, oil consumption and foreign direct investment influence carbon emissions solely via coal consumption. These findings underscore the need to develop efficient emission control strategies rapidly. Policy recommendations include accelerating economic restructuring, reducing dependence on fossil fuels, and promoting the adoption of clean, renewable energy sources. By analyzing these factors, the study offers significant insights into achieving simultaneous economic growth and environmental sustainability.