Hydrogen Strategies Under Uncertainty: Risk-Averse Choices for Green Hydrogen Pathways

The last decade has been characterized by a growing environmental awareness and the rise of climate change concerns. Continuous advancement of renewable energy technologies in this context has taken a central stage on the global agenda, leading to a diverse array of innovations, ranging from cutting-edge green energy production technologies to advanced energy storage solutions. In this evolving context, ensuring the sustainability of energy systems—through the reduction of carbon emissions, enhancement of energy resilience, and responsible resource integration—has become a primary objective of modern energy planning. The integration of hydrogen technologies for power-to-gas (P2G) and power-to-power (P2P) and energy storage systems is one of the areas where the most remarkable progress is being made. However, real case implementations are lagging behind expectations due to large-scale investments needed, which, under high energy price uncertainty, act as a barrier to widespread adoption. This study proposes a risk-averse approach for sizing an Integrated Hybrid Energy System considering the uncertainty of electricity and gas prices. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer program and tested on a real-world case study. The analysis sheds light on the value of synergies and innovative solutions that hold the promise of a cleaner, more sustainable future for generations to come.