Green Finance-Driven and Low-Carbon Energy Transition: A Tripartite Game-Theoretic and Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Evidence from 30 Chinese Provinces

Addressing climate change and achieving carbon neutrality are urgent global responsibilities, with China’s “dual carbon” goals presenting a significant challenge and opportunity for its energy sector. Green finance, as a pivotal driver for fostering low-carbon and high-quality development in the energy industry, significantly accelerates its green transition. Employing an integrated micro-macro framework, this study first develops a tripartite evolutionary game model involving government, local energy enterprises, and external energy enterprises to analyze the micro-mechanisms of corporate low-carbon decision-making under green finance policies. Subsequently, utilizing panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2013–2021), it empirically examines the macro impact of green finance on the industry’s low-carbon, high-quality development using a spatial Durbin model (SDM). Key findings include the following: (1) Game analysis reveals that local enterprises’ low-carbon transition propensity and emission reduction returns increase with R&D investment but are negatively moderated by the tax rate level within green finance policies. (2) Spatial econometric results demonstrate that green finance significantly facilitates local energy industry low-carbon transition via technological progress, confirming a significant negative spatial spillover effect on neighboring regions, with notable regional heterogeneity. (3) The effectiveness of green finance policy exhibits significant regional disparity, being markedly stronger in eastern China compared to central and western regions. The findings provide a theoretical and practical foundation for improving market mechanisms and regional coordination in China’s green finance policies, offering a valuable reference for the design of green finance systems in other major emerging and developing economies.