Hybrid Hydropower–PV with Mining Flexibility and Heat Recovery: Article 6-Ready Mitigation Pathways in Central Asia

The global transition to renewable energy requires hybrid solutions that address variability while delivering tangible co-benefits and verifiable mitigation outcomes. This study evaluates a novel small hydropower–photovoltaic (SHP–PV) hybrid system in the Kyrgyz Republic that integrates flexible Bitcoin mining loads and waste-heat recovery for greenhouse heating. A techno-economic model was developed for a 10 MW configuration, allocating annual net generation of 57.34 GWh between grid export and on-site mining through a single decision parameter. Mitigation accounting applies a combined margin grid factor of 0.4–0.7 tCO2/MWh for exported electricity and a diesel factor of 0.26–0.27 tCO2/MWh_fuel for heat displacement, yielding Article 6–eligible reductions from both electricity and recovered heat. Waste-heat recovery from mining supplies ≈15 MWh_th/year to a 50 m2 greenhouse, displacing diesel use and demonstrating visible sustainable development co-benefits. Economic analysis reproduces annual revenues of ≈$1.9 million, with a levelized cost of electricity of $48/MWh and an indicative IRR of ~6%, consistent with positive but modest returns under merchant operation and uplift potential under mixed allocations. This study concludes that componentized accounting—exported electricity credited under grid displacement and diesel displacement credited from recovered heat—ensures Article 6 integrity and positions SHP–PV hybrids as replicable, multi-service renewable models for Central Asia. Unlike prior hybrid studies that treat generation, economics, and mitigation separately, our framework integrates allocation (α), financial outcomes, and Article 6 carbon accounting within a unified structure, while explicitly modeling Bitcoin mining as an endogenous flexible load with thermal recovery—advancing methodological approaches for multi-service renewable systems in climate policy contexts.