Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Carbon Sequestration Potential Across South Korea: A CASA Model-Based Assessment of NPP, Heterotrophic Respiration, and NEP

Achieving carbon neutrality requires a comprehensive understanding of terrestrial carbon dynamics, particularly the capacity of ecosystems to act as carbon sinks. This study quantified the temporal and spatial variability of net primary production (NPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP) across South Korea from 2010 to 2024, assessing long-term carbon sink trends and their implications for carbon neutrality and nature-based solutions (NbSs). Using the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) model driven by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data and climate variables, we estimated ecosystem carbon fluxes at high spatial and temporal resolutions. In 2024, national NPP totaled 78.63 Mt CO2 yr−1, with a mean value of 1956.63 t CO2 ha−1 yr−1. High productivity was concentrated in upland forests of Gangwon-do, Mt. Jirisan, and northern Gyeongsangbuk-do, where favorable vegetation indices and climatic conditions enhanced photosynthesis. Lower productivity occurred in urbanized areas and intensively farmed lowlands. Heterotrophic respiration (RH) was estimated at 15.35 Mt CO2 yr−1, with elevated rates in warm, humid lowlands and reduced values in high-elevation forests. The resulting NEP in 2024 was 63.29 Mt CO2 yr−1, with strong sinks along the Baekdudaegan Range and localized negative NEP pockets in lowlands dominated by urban development or agriculture. From 2010 to 2024, the spatially averaged NPP increased from 1170 to 1543 g C m−2 yr−1, indicating a general upward trend in ecosystem productivity. However, interannual variability was influenced by climatic fluctuations, land-cover changes, and data masking adjustments. These findings provide critical insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon sinks in South Korea, offering essential baseline data for national greenhouse gas inventories and the strategic integration of NbSs into carbon-neutral policies.