Integrated Energy Short-Term Adaptive Load Forecasting Method Based on Coupled Feature Extraction

Integrated energy load forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing the operation and economic dispatch of integrated energy systems. Its forecasting accuracy is not only time-dependent but also influenced by the coupling characteristics among energy sources. Solely relying on time-scale training methods cannot adequately capture the strong correlations among multiple energy sources. To address challenges in extracting coupled load forecasting features, obtaining periodic characteristics, and setting model network structures, this paper proposes an Integrated Energy Short-Term Adaptive Load Forecasting Method Based on Coupled Feature Extraction (AP-CFE). This approach integrates high-dimensional coupling features and periodic temporal features effectively using ensemble algorithms. To prevent overfitting or underfitting issues, an Adaptive learning algorithm (AP) is introduced. The load demonstrates highly stochastic behavior in response to external factors, resulting in rapid, volatile fluctuations in grid demand. The strategy of employing sparse self-attention to approximate the residual terms effectively mitigates this issue. Simulation results using comprehensive energy load data from Australia demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms existing models, achieving better capture of energy coupling characteristics with average absolute percentage errors reduced by 20.75%, 28.48%, and 21.64% for electricity, heat, and gas loads, respectively.