Visualizing Causal Interactions Across the 2030 Agenda Pillars: Mapping Priorities for Integrated Policy Action

ABSTRACT We examine the interconnections between the five pillars of the 2030 Agenda, which we constructed using partial synthetic indices of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). We use time series of the 169 targets corresponding to the 17 SDGs from Eurostat, covering the period from 2000 to 2021 for 28 countries. Subsequently, we apply novel recent developments based on the Granger causality methodology to robustly analyze the relationships between the pillars for a panel of countries. We find a moderate leadership of the planet pillar over the other pillars considered, with a predominance of this pillar between 25% and 50% of the scenarios considered. The results also indicate a direct and significant relationship between the people and partnership pillars, as well as between the prosperity and people pillars, for countries such as Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Netherlands, and Portugal. More importantly, combining alternative scenarios which group all the tests corresponding to the same bivariate relationship, we identify a strong leadership of the planet, partnership, prosperity, and peace pillars over the people pillar; specifically, this happens significantly and directly in more than 50% of the scenarios considered. Therefore, preserving and caring for the environment must be a priority to ensure social welfare and economic prosperity.