Credible fictions: how states stage refugee governance for geopolitical gain

Abstract How is refugee governance constructed for geopolitical gain? This article introduces the concept of credible fictions to theorize how states strategically curate aspects of refugee governance to appear as responsible partners. These fictions are not outright lies, but plausible distortions that produce legible signs of humanitarian strain and institutional responsibility. The article identifies three modalities: illusions of scale, in which population figures are exaggerated to amplify geopolitical relevance; performative enforcement, where control is symbolically enacted to signal responsibility; and staged compliance, in which policy metrics are curated to suggest implementation without structural reform. These practices allow states to preserve sovereign discretion while securing international recognition and material support, often with the tacit endorsement of international organizations. Rather than assessing veracity, the analysis centres on how credibility is constructed, by whom, and to what end. It reframes refugee rent-seeking as a practice grounded in visibility rather than outcomes, and highlights symbolic performance as a core strategy in migration diplomacy.