Balancing integrated green-grey infrastructure shapes carbon emissions in village-town clusters

The rapid expansion of built-up land has disrupted carbon dynamics, intensifying climate instability. Understanding how green and gray infrastructure patterns influence carbon emissions is crucial, yet most analyses either treat them separately or overlook local heterogeneity. This study adopts village-town clusters as minimum planning entities to explore how integrated green-grey infrastructure land cover patterns (IGGI-LCPs) affect net carbon emission intensity (NCEI). Using eight representative village-town clusters (74 villages) in Zhejiang Province, China, we developed an IGGI-LCP quantification system and a dual carbon accounting framework. GWR and MGWR show that dense gray infrastructure consistently increases emissions, while green coverage mitigates emissions only when forming large ecological cores. GDP density drives emissions, whereas population density shows indirect, context-specific effects. Threshold analysis shows NDGG ≤ -0.20 for carbon sinks, NDGG ≥ +0.20 for carbon sources, and -0.20 ≤ NDGG ≤ +0.20 indicates a balanced green-grey configuration. Findings emphasize adaptive and region-specific strategies to support low-carbon planning amid rural transformations.