Interplay of Regional Climate Change and Urban Effects: Projected Impacts on Tourism Climate Potential in Szeged, Hungary

Climate change exerts wide-ranging impacts on urban tourism, influencing visitor well-being, experiences, and the timing and location of activities. Anticipating future variation in climatic conditions in urban destinations is essential for developing climate-resilient strategies and targeted adaptation measures. This study employs high-resolution (1 km) land surface simulations to assess tourism’s climate potential in Szeged, Hungary. Two tourism climate indices were computed at the urban scale for multiple future periods using bias-corrected datasets under different emission scenarios. The analysis examines whether the model can capture urban-induced alterations in the indices and how these impacts emerge in their spatiotemporal patterns. It also evaluates projected changes in tourism potential, arising from the combined influence of regional climate change and urban climate processes, across scenarios and periods. Results show that the climate-modifying effects of urban surfaces are reflected in both urban–rural and intra-urban variations, with outcomes strongly dependent on the index, season, and scenario. Projections indicate a decline in conditions between May and September, alongside stable or improved potential during other months. The findings underscore the challenges and opportunities posed by climate change and urban modifications, emphasizing the potential to extend the tourism season and the need to improve pedestrian comfort during critical periods.